There are increasing reports that the pro Gaddafi forces are fighting back in Libya which poses an interesting question? What happens if they win? According to SKY news the anti Gaddafi forces resemble a mixture of Dad's Army and Mad Max so any half trained coordinated force should be able to counter them. Colonel Gaddafi also has heavy weaponry and an air capability (not to mention any nasties hidden in the back room) so realistically he may be able to fight back.
So the question remains what next? In order to win he would have to commit genocide. He has already illustrated that he would do that and the aftermath, if he ever gets back in control, would be even worse. In the past the 'civilized' western powers with their advantage in military might could have played an influence but could they in this situation? The war in Afghanistan is tieing up so much manpower. The UN seems particularly impotent in this modern age. The EU only oppress the compliant and neither Russia or China seem to have any interest in external military matters so who would oppose Gaddafi?
I am afraid that my guess is that he would get away with it. It is therefore down to the people because they must know that defeat would be unthinkable. It could all be on a knife edge.