Sunday, 6 March 2011

So What Happens if Gaddafi Wins?

There are increasing reports that the pro Gaddafi forces are fighting back in Libya which poses an interesting question? What happens if they win? According to SKY news the anti Gaddafi forces resemble a mixture of Dad's Army and Mad Max so any half trained coordinated force should be able to counter them. Colonel Gaddafi also has heavy weaponry and an air capability (not to mention any nasties hidden in the back room) so realistically he may be able to fight back.

So the question remains what next? In order to win he would have to commit genocide. He has already illustrated that he would do that and the aftermath, if he ever gets back in control, would be even worse. In the past the 'civilized' western powers with their advantage in military might could have played an influence but could they in this situation? The war in Afghanistan is tieing up so much manpower. The UN seems particularly impotent in this modern age. The EU only oppress the compliant and neither Russia or China seem to have any interest in external military matters so who would oppose Gaddafi?

I am afraid that my guess is that he would get away with it. It is therefore down to the people because they must know that defeat would be unthinkable.  It could all be on a knife edge.


--- said...

The best would be for the opposition to join forces with Egypt, and form a "Republican Union" along with Tunisia. Perhaps that would help, because then Gadafi would be fighting a front on two wars, however as I can't say much about Tunisia's military capabilities...keep in mind no one knows what will happen, perhaps solar power will make Gadafi impotent, but that'll be in like 200 years...

Anonymous said...

If Gaddafi wins, Europe will be sucking on his balls again. If Gaddafi loses, Europe will be sucking on the balls of a whole bunch of local mini-gaddafi sheiks. Stupid lybian youth are losers in either case.