VMB's Election Poll

I continue to record how the British public are actually voting in the local By-Elections and in the latest local by election in a ward of Middlesborough the BNP came second to NoLab with a 19.1% share of the vote. Once again the Tory vote collapsed in a NoLab stronghold.

This despite a poll which Guido has trumpeted indicates that the BNP will only receive 5% of the vote on 04 June. The establishment all want UKIP to be the party of protest because they are controllable. They have form for stealing from the public purse so they must be OK. The only party who are financially 'clean' are the BNP.

I know all about the racism slurs, there are aspects of their policy which I am uncomfortable with (I think) but you see I agree that we should come out of Europe. I agree that the mass immigration has to cease. I agree that anyone who lives in this country and should not be here should return home.

I really believe that our own people should be given priority in education, health and welfare. Our young couples come first. Don't get me wrong because there are many immigrant families living in this country who deserve to be here and I know have contributed vastly to our society. This is not a 'colour' issue. It is a 'fairness' issue. The British public want a fair playing field and they are sure not getting one at the moment.

So back to the poll! Will the BNP only get 5% of the vote? Ever since the beginning of the year they have polled far better and I tell you what, once people have crossed the line and decided to align themselves with the force of evil then there is no turning back.

It takes courage to vote BNP because all the controlled media are telling you that you are racist, bestial and bigoted. You will be termed 'vile' and 'odious' because believe you me they are scared that some of the people are not under their control. I personally may be terribly disappointed by the outcome but I just have to give them one go at reforming what is a dreadfully corrupt, outmoded and undemocratic electoral system.

Only time on 04 June will tell if I am correct! Are the British people as sickened by modern politics as I think they are?

VMB's Election Poll

Here are the updated stats following the by election for the Irwell and Riverside constituency of Salford City Council. To be honest since I began collecting the data nothing much has changed NoLab and the Tories are almost neck and neck but they are still polling under 50% of the total poll. The Lib Dems and the BNP are also holding their share of the vote. The rest are really not at the races with UKIP only getting 3%.

NoLab 24.52%
Tories 24.11%
LIbDems 20%
BNP 16.33%
Greens 5.29%
Independent 6.8% (Unchanged)
UKIP 3.3%

VMB's Election Poll

We are closing in on 04 June the date of the European elections and yesterday a local by election occurred in a ward of Salford. Once again the prediction of this blog which ignores the fantasy polls and concentrates on fact and the way people are actually voting has come up trumps.

The NoLab vote continues to stand fast in their core areas. It does not seem to matter how poorly they perform, how corrupt they are because if your family depends on your salary/benefit/immigration status then you will vote for them. Their vote is standing up. Contrast that with the Tory vote in these inner city areas because they cannot break through.

Now what could be the real fight on the fourth of June could be between the darlings of the establishment UKIP and the hate party the BNP. Well I hate to tell the mainstream media but once again the BNP polled 17% of the vote. Well ahead of the Tories and double the vote of both the Greens and UKIP combined.

If you really want to punish the Westminster three then a vote for UKIP and the Greens is wasted. If you are voting for change then there is only one vote. If you don't believe me then visit the BNP website and look at the comments. They are not the ridiculous, spurious, obscene comments that one sees on the populist blogs. In this day and age it takes courage to support an anti establishment party.

I will update the figures over the weekend but I can tell you that it is the Tories who are losing ground! Can you believe that? Gordon Brown must know that there are so many people depending on him for a living that he may yet win through.

Perhaps if he was a man of courage he would chance a General Election. Naw he won't and we all know why!

VMB's Election Poll

There was only one local By Election last week at Rossmere Hartlepool. I would think that this is one constituency where people get excommunicated from their family for voting anything other than Labour but even I was shocked that NoLab, even when their government is mired in sleaze, actually increased their vote by over 50 votes.

So there you have it, the NoLab MPs are treating the voters with utter contempt. They are 'flipping' their houses every year in order to claim money for renovating every property that they own. The PM is up to every trick in the book to claim expenses which any normal job would disallow without a thought. Some of them have acted against even the rules of the 'Green Book' like the waster Phil Woolas who even claimed for tampons! No matter to the voters of Hartlepool they have 'Labour' after their name so that is good enough for them! Keir Hardie and John Smith would be swivelling in their graves.

Mind you I have blogged many times that this is not exclusive to Hartlepool. The core NoLab vote has not collapsed in these by elections and this week they are now ahead of the Tories on the percentage vote. UKIP did surprisingly well but they did well in this constituency before and even though they did well to come second it only raises their percentage to 3.125% and they have only fought 12 out of 73 by elections this year. They appear to be tactically using their few candidates to challenge the BNP vote. A ploy which will be welcomed by the Westminster Three no doubt if they can ever raise their noses out of the trough.

The publication of the rampant excesses of the dishonourable members at Westminster surely proves beyond all doubt that they are unworthy of our trust and we need new parties to challenge them. The problem is that our political system is geared towards corruption so that new parties struggle to get a toe hold. Only one party (The BNP)has constantly dared to challenge them and they are holding their percentage at 16%. Here are the figures.

NoLab 24.44%
Tories 24.26% (They came bottom in Hartlepool with only 105 votes!)
LibDems 20.05%
BNP 16.43%
Greens 5.28% (Unchanged)
Independents 6.8% (Unchanged)
UKIP 3.125%

Remember this is how people are actually voting and the figures come from all over the country. It is a four way fight despite what the main stream media tell you. The BNP are not allowed on Question Time, they have no media access apart from 'Freedom' their own newspaper, no party political broadcast on TV and they still have sufficient support to be a threat.

VMB's Election Poll

After a blank week last Thursday there were two local elections at Erewash and Redbridge this week. Once again it only demonstrated how confused voters are at the moment. In Erewash NoLab managed to persuade their core voters to the polling stations and to my utter astonishment almost 700 people think that NoLab is still worth their vote. I suspect that most of them owe their jobs or their immigration status to the government.

In Redbridge the Tories won comfortably but once again NoLab managed to pull out almost 700 voters. This tends to suggest that, despite the performance of the government, the idealists still believe the socialist dogma. It is frightening!

The big loser is these two elections were the BNP who failed to make any inroads in either of these constituencies. Once again UKIP polled miserably in the only election they chose to fight. It appears that despite not getting a vote on Europe, despite the horrendous cost to the taxpayer, despite the EU never passing an audit the public have been so brainwashed that they continue to vote for parties who support this mish-mash union of countries.

These are the updated figures:-

Tories 25.14%
NoLab 24.41%
LibDem 19.49%
BNP 16.66%
Ind 6.8%
Greens 5.42%
UKIP 2.3%

Remember these figures are based on how people have actually voted in the local elections since the beginning of the year. They are not the result of polls conducted by people who have a vested interest in promoting political parties.

VMB's Election Poll

With only one local by-election last week the percentages have not changed very much. It is still very tight between the two major parties which still surprises me. Everyone is convinced nationally that the Tories will win the next election but these figures are predicting a hung parliament.

The BNP are putting up a good fight in fourth place but they will be hamstrung at the next election because of lack of finance. They do not appear to have the financial backing that the larger parties attract which is another blow to democracy. Only the rich can afford to fight elections in Britain today.

Anyway here are the stats after Moston Manchester.

Tories 24.9%
NoLab 24.33%
LibDems 19.29%
BNP 17.38%
Independents 6.8%
Greens 5.18%
UKIP 2.5%

VMB's Election Poll

There were only four by-elections last week and in three of them the Lib Dems beat NoLab. The NoLab vote contunes to hold up in their traditional heartlands (the cities)which helps them to maintain a challenge to the Tories. In the rural areas however they are polling poorly.

As I said yesterday the BNP had a great result in Leeds and continue to pick up votes almost everywhere that they field a candidate. If these results hold up in the European elections then they could establish more than a toehold. What is being established is that the Greens and UKIP are not powerful enough to feature and generally a vote for them is wasted. Independents rarely make a significant impact and sometimes cut their own throats by opposing each other.

These are the current standings

Tories 25.7%
NoLab 24.6% (down 1% in one week)
LibDems 19.9% (up over 1%)
BNP 17.31%
Independents 6.8%
Greens 5.4%
UKIP 2.5%

If the people who do not vote for the Westminster three got their acts together then a fourth party could emerge. Most of these people do not want to join the corrupt, unaudited EU, most want some limit on immigration, most want a justice system that cracks down on the criminal and protects the law abiding. Most are family people who care about their children and are concerned about the future of this country. They just have to decide how best to show their disgust with Westminster politics.

VMB's Election Poll

I have now included the election results for 19 March. There were a total of five local by elections and no real surprises. As the percentages show the NoLab support in the large connorbations is keeping them in the race. It doesn't seem to matter how they perform (or don't), how many of them are caught abusing their privileges nothing can shake this blinkered core vote.

Today the News of the World carried an editorial once again attacking the BNP and warning that if they attract 5% of the vote then they could send seven BNP MEP's to Brussels. They are also warning that some large cities may also fall to the BNP. There is a whiff of fear in the air!

Conservative 24.27%
NoLab 24.18%
LibDems 18.5%
BNP 16.7%
Independents 6.5%
Greens 5.4%
UKIP 2.33% (unchanged did not field a candidate)

VMB's Election Poll

I recently added in the election results which took place on 12 March. There were seven of them in total and once again they were a really mixed bag. I must admit that I am surprised because I expected that the electorate would want to give Gordon Brown a really bad kicking but there is a hard core of NoLab voters who despite everything continue to vote Labour.

They have seen the economy crash, unemployment boom, soldiers killed, mass unaccountable immigration, disastrous Social Services performance, the breakdown of law and order in many areas, the corruption of the Police, the politicisation of the Civil Service and Labour MPs taking every advantage of a system that they created and yet they still vote Labour! It is incomprehensible!

Take the city of St Helens. Now I know that it is a fairly sizable municipal borough on the outskirts of Liverpool and I realise that, in the past, when we had a manufacturing base these large northern cities were the bedrock of NoLab support. Today however this has all but evaporated. NoLab does not represent them anymore but the message just has not got through.

This is how it stands overall as at 12 March:-

NoLab 24.61%
Conservatives 24.02%
LibDems 19.24%
BNP 17.19%
Greens 5.77%
Independents 6.85%
UKIP 2.33%

According to this Gordon could almost risk an election but the stats are often misleading. The reason for this lead is purely down to heavy polls in certain areas. The hard line union vote still exists in the heartlands. The immigrant population also realise that only NoLab would probably put them first before anyone else so they also know where to place their little cross.

The rest of us seem confused. Three parties are grabbing 60% of the vote which almost guarantees a hung parliament. Somebody has to make a major pitch in the coming months to garner that vote. I believe that the party which may be squeezed in the run up to a National election are the LibDems. They traditional poll well at local level but when the chips are down their 'protest' vote evaporates.

The real choice appears to be do we vote nice or nasty? Do we really want change or are we scared of it? Are we yet desperate enough to think the unthinkable or will we continue with the same old slags who have let us down so often and so regularly?

I will continue to update on how we are voting every time we get the opportunity.

VMB's Election Poll

I just updated the Victor Meldrew's Brother Election Poll. I have now included the results from local elections held on 26 Feb and 05 Mar and the total number of votes cast for each party so far this year is as follows:-

Conservative 24498
NoLab 19054
LibDems 15658
BNP 6458
Greens 1901
Independents (Combined) 2627
UKIP 367

As I explained before I then divided the number of votes by the number of elections fought to gain the average number of votes polled in each election which I then converted into a percentage of the vote that each party gained.

Conservative 569.72 25.33%
NoLab 501.42 22.3%
BNP 430.53 19.14%
LibDems 401.49 17.85%
Independents 164.19 7.3%
Greens 135.78 6.04%
UKIP 45.87 2.04%

This is how people have actually voted and not what the professional pollsters are trying to tell you. Nowhere has it been reported that in real terms the BNP are overtaking the LibDems. It is also significant that the European Elections are fought on the terms of proportional representation. This means that each party will receive seats in line with the percentage of votes that have been cast for them.

VMB's Election Poll

I don't know about you but I always have doubts about the professional companies who produce the election polls. I often wonder who they ask because I have certainly never been approached and apparently never have any of my friends of family.

I therefore decided just for a bit of fun to see if the most recent 2009 local By Elections have produced any kind of evidence on which to hang our hats. I therefore produced a spreadsheet and fed in all the results. The results themselves were not surprising but when they are analysed for trends then there are some significant examples.

To begin with turnover is risible. The Westminster politicians with their history of sleaze and dishonesty has switched off the electorate to such an extent that on average only some 28% of the electorate thinks that it is worth turning out. Now I realise that these elections are comparatively minor but 28% is shocking for a so called western democracy.

Significantly when the BNP field a candidate the turnover rises on average by almost 5% which could be interpreted either that people are turning out to vote against them or it is more likely that the BNP candidate has been welcomed in many areas as a viable alternative to Westminster politics.

The other minority parties are irrelevant according to this survey. UKIP field few candidates and get only a smattering of votes whilst the Greens are virtually ignored outside of London.

So what about the Westminster three? Here are the bare totals of the votes which they have gathered so far this year:-

NoLab 15900
Conservatives 18469
Lib Dems 13819
BNP 4088
Greens 1632
Independents 1917 (This is a total of all kinds of independent)
UKIP 263

So on the face of it no real surprises but the bare figures only tell part of the story. For example the Westminster three fielded candidates in 26-31 of the 32 elections but the BNP and the Greens only fielded candidates in 10 elections. If one calculates an average poll for each party by dividing their total votes polled by the number of elections attended then suddenly things close up considerably.

In this respect the results are a follows:-

NoLab 611 24.15%
Conservatives 595 23.51%
LibDem 512 20.24%
BNP 409 16.17%
Green 163 06.44%
Independents 174 06.90%
UKIP 66 02.60%
2530

So much closer eh? But there is more; the bulk of the NoLab vote comes from the poor immigrant areas in London where they poll amazingly well. If we subtract their London votes then they barely finish in front of the LibDems and the Tories have a substantial lead. Outside of London they still poll well in their traditional heartlands but they are getting almost wiped out in the rural areas or the better class urban areas.

This year the BNP have obviously cherry picked their elections but if they can field more candidates for example in the European Elections this summer it is obvious that they are not far off from making a significant impact.

I am aware that there are lies damned lies and statistics but I think that this is much closer to the truth than the professional polls are showing because it has been done without prejudice. Time will tell!